Heading into the holiday weekend, the NFL action is spread out across four days. The Jaguars and Jets kick things off in Week 16 with their matchup Thursday night. Then, the bulk of the games are played Saturday on Christmas Eve, followed by three games on Christmas, and one Monday Night, which is a less-than-thrilling game between the Chargers and Colts.
For those tracking 2022 betting trends, the underdogs still have an advantage with a 120-97-7 (55%) against the spread (ATS) record. The under has cashed in 55.2% of games (122 games), while the over has cashed at a 44.8% clip (99 games).
Seven of the 16 games in Week 16 feature home underdogs, including the Bears, who the biggest home dogs as they are being spotted 8.5 points against the Bills. Home underdogs have covered the spread in 57% of games this season (49-37-3).
For the first time all year, the Eagles are listed as underdogs, in large part to the injury news involving MVP candidate Jalen Hurts.
Bettors can take part in SI Sportsbook’s free Perfect 10 contest each week during the NFL season. The weekly game requires bettors to make 10 selections against the spread for a chance at a share of a $10,000 prize. Every bettor who picks at least six games correctly will be awarded consolation prizes in the form of free bets.
Week 16 Betting and Team Trends
Thursday, Dec. 22
Spread: Jets -1.5
Total: 38
- The Jets have lost four of their last five games.
- Each of the Jaguars’ last four games have hit the over
- New York is 3-0 ATS against teams with losing records.
Saturday, Dec. 24
Spread: Bengals -3.5
Perfect 10 line: Bengals -3.5
Total: 41.5
- The Bengals are on a six-game winning streak and have won four straight matchups against AFC teams.
- In Patriots’ games against AFC teams, the under has cashed in six out of nine.
- The Bengals are 13-1 ATS in their last 14 games when coming off a win.
- Cincinnati is 16-3 ATS in its last 19 games and 8-1 in its last nine games.
Spread: Browns -2.5
Perfect 10 line: Browns -3.5
Total: 31.5
- New Orleans is 1-4 ATS in its last five road games
- The under has cashed in six out of seven Saints’ games.
- Cleveland has won its last eight games when facing a team with a losing record.
- The Saints are 0-4 ATS when coming off a win.
- The Browns are 1-4 ATS when coming off a win.
Spread: Chiefs -9.5
Perfect 10 line: Chiefs -9.5
Total: 48.5
- The Chiefs are 12-2 straight-up (SU) at home in their last 14 games.
- The Seahawks are 0-5 ATS in their last five games.
- The Chiefs are 1-4 ATS in their last five games.
- When coming off a win, the Chiefs are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games.
Spread: Bills -8.5
Perfect 10 line: Bills -8.5
Total: 40.5
- The Bills have won five of their last seven games on the road.
- Chicago 3-10 ATS as a home underdog.
- The over has cashed in four of the last five Bills’ games but when coming off a win and playing on the road, the under has cashed in five straight.
Spread: Lions -2.5
Total: 43.5
- Detroit is 7-3 ATS when playing against a team with a losing record.
- Carolina is 4-1 SU when listed as a home underdog.
- The Lions’ last three games against NFC teams have hit the over.
- Detroit is 8-0 ATS when coming off a win.
- When the Panthers are coming off a loss, the under has cashed in four of five games.
Spread: Titans -5.5
Total: 37
- The Titans are 0-4 ATS in their last four games. They were 8-2 ATS prior.
- The Texans have covered the spread in their last two games but are 3-6 ATS in their last nine games.
- Houston has covered the spread in three of its last four games against Tennessee.
- The over is 4-2 in the last six meetings between these AFC South rivals.
- Since 2020, the over is 3-14 in the Titans’ last 17 home games (including playoffs).
Spread: Ravens -7.5
Perfect 10 line: Ravens -6.5
Total: Over/Under 37.5
- The Ravens lost to the Browns in Week 15 and are 1-3 ATS when coming off a loss.
- The Falcons are 4-2 ATS as an away underdog.
- Baltimore is 0-5 ATS as a home favorite.
- The over has cashed in just two of the Ravens’ last 11 games.
Spread: Vikings -5.5
Perfect 10 line: Vikings -3.5
Total: 48
- The Giants are 10-4 ATS, one of the best records against the spread.
- New York is 8-2 ATS as an underdog.
- The Vikings are 4-3 ATS as a home favorite and 6-7-1 ATS in 2022.
- The over has cashed in six of the Vikings’ eight home games.
- The over has cashed in just one of the Giants’ five games on the road
Spread: 49ers -7.5
Perfect 10 line: 49ers -7.5
Over/Under 39.5
- Washington is 7-6-1 ATS, while San Francisco is 9-5 ATS.
- The 49ers have covered the spread in five straight games.
- The over has cashed in just one of the Commanders’ last seven games following a loss.
- San Francisco is 5-1 ATS when playing as a home favorite and 6-3 ATS following a win.
Spread: Cowboys -7.5
Perfect 10 line: Cowboys -1.5
Total: 41.5
- The original line listed the Eagles as 1.5-point underdogs and has jumped up to +7.5 due to Hurts’s injury.
- Both the Eagles and Cowboys are 8-6 ATS.
- The Cowboys are 7-1 straight up and 5-3 ATS at home.
- This is the first game in 2022 where the Eagles are listed as underdogs.
Line: Steelers -2.5
Total: 39.5
- The Raiders are 3-0 ATS as a road underdog in 2022.
- Pittsburgh is 1-2 ATS as a home favorite.
- Las Vegas is 1-4 SU in its last five away games.
- The Steelers are 0-8-1 ATS at home following a win.
- The over has come in just once in the Raiders’ last five away games.
Sunday, Dec. 25
Green Bay Packers vs. Miami Dolphins Odds
Spread: Dolphins -3.5
Perfect 10 line: Dolphins -4.5
Total: 49.5
- Neither team has a winning record ATS. The Packers are 6-8, while the Dolphins are 7-7.
- Miami is 3-1 ATS as a home favorite.
- The Packers are 2-2 as an away underdog.
- The over has hit in 50% of both Green Bay and Miami’s games.
Spread: Broncos -2.5
Perfect 10 line: Broncos -1.5
Total: 36.5
- The Broncos are 6-8 ATS and the Rams are 4-8-2.
- The Rams are 1-4 ATS as a home favorite.
- Denver is 2-2 ATS as an away underdog.
- The over hit in just one of the Broncos last 10 games when Denver is coming off a win (includes 2021).
Line: Buccaneers -5.5
Total: 40.5
- The Buccaneers are 3-10-1 ATS, the worst record in the NFL.
- Arizona is 6-8 ATS in 2022.
- Tampa Bay is 2-4 ATS on the road.
- The Cardinals are 3-4 ATS at home in 2022 and 3-10 ATS in their last 13 home games (includes 2021).
- When playing an NFC team, the over has cashed in the Cardinals’ last five games.
Monday, Dec. 26
Spread: Chargers -3.5
Total: 46.5
- The Chargers have a winning record ATS at 8-5-1, while the Colts are 6-8.
- Los Angeles is 5-2 ATS on the road and 3-1 ATS as an away favorite.
- The Colts are 3-3 ATS at home and 2-0 ATS as a home underdog.
- The over has cashed in just five of the Colts and Chargers games this season.
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